The basis of our political system is the right of the people to make and to alter their constitutions of government.
George Washington, USA’s first president
One of the meanings of the term ‘aftermath’ in the online Oxford Dictionary is “the consequences or after-effects of a significant unpleasant event.”
This was certainly the case for Pakatan Harapan in the latest parliamentary by-election in Johor’s, Tanjung Piai constituency.
From 2004 to 2008 it was held by the seventh president of the MCA, Tan Sri Datuk Seri Ong Ka Ting. Thereafter, from 2008 to 2018 (for 2 terms) it was held by Datuk Seri Dr Wee Jeck Seng (MCA). He held it initially with a 12,371 majority in GE12 and then in GE13 with a 5,457 majority (the slide in support for BN was evident here already) over the DAP candidate.
However, in the GE14 backlash against BN, he lost the seat by 524 votes to the Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Datuk Wira Dr Mohamed Farid Md Rafik from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). Sadly, on September 21 2019, he passed away, thereby triggering the by-election on November 17.
The run-up to the Tanjung Piai by-election generated a lot of chatter in many chat groups and the press. There were already predictions that PH would lose the seat. The various predictions put BN winning the seat with a majority ranging from two thousand to five thousand votes.
However, as the preliminary results were rolling out it became obvious the loss suffered by PH was almost at the catastrophic level.
When the results were declared, out of the total valid votes of 38,815, BN had garnered 25,466 votes (65.60 per cent) with a massive majority of 15,086 and PH 10,380 (26.74 per cent) with the other votes distributed amongst the other four candidates. The turnout was 74 per cent out of the 52,986 eligible registered voters.
Many political leaders declared that they were shocked by the results; however, I suspect not the general populace. So, what happened? Why this devastating blow to the PH government? After all, it was only about one and the half years ago that they rode into power on a wave of strong and boisterous public support to unseat the seemingly irremovable BN government.
Many reasons have subsequently been attributed to this large loss. These range from non-implementations of the majority of the election manifesto, majority of cabinet ministers being perceived as incompetent, excessive conflict between the component parties and internal infighting in some of the PH component parties, overplaying the blame game to the previous government, the flaring up of racial and religious sentiments, allegations of large scale corruption … and the list goes on.
The Democratic Action Party (DAP), a PH component party once held up by its members and supporters as living proof of decency, integrity and honesty could not even rally people to their campaign gatherings and get their GE14 Chinese votes to back PH.
However, on the political grapevine, it is also speculated that both DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in fact did not put in much of an effort and only participated in a ‘lip service’ type campaign. This apparently was to send a message to the Prime Minister that they had had enough of his mechanisation and arrogance.
The impact of the election result seems to have accelerated and heightened the conflict within PH rather than having a unifying effect in the face of such adversity.
Blame has been showered on Tun Mahathir as the Prime Minister by many political quarters with rumours of a vote of no confidence in him. He has now resorted to his time-tested strategy of diverting attention and blame away from himself.
So, enter the PKR gambit. Immediately, the animosity between the PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali flares up. News of Azmin having meetings of politicians from other parties supposedly to gather support for himself and Tun Mahathir have gathered pace.
The political battle inside the largest party in the Pakatan Harapan coalition, PKR now has moved over to Sarawak as well. Sarawakian proxies from both sides of the Malayan camp took up the battle cry of their respective camp leaders.
They chose the PKR convention as their battleground. Baru Bian, the PKR state chief who was meant to organise the PKR convention in Sarawak, cancelled the convention due to various internal reasons. This convention was revived with the support of Anwar Ibrahim and was eventually held in Miri. The Azmin and Baru Bian faction mostly boycotted it.
The split here in Sarawak has become very evident. Speculation is now rife that Baru Bian might break away from PKR and either form a new Sarawak based party or join an existing (non-GPS) Sarawak based party, however maintaining his support for PH, thereby holding on to his federal ministerial post.
This on-going internecine warfare in Sarawak could also trigger the Azmin faction breaking away from PKR but remain in PH via several options. This would mean that PKR could be significantly weakened with a much smaller presence in parliament. This would possibly work in favour of Bersatu. It is all a numbers game.
There are of course many behind the scene manoeuvres and counter-manoeuvres going on that we are not aware of.
One certain thing is that, based on the current scenario, all roads seem to be leading to a zero-sum game … winner takes all. Who the ultimate winner is in Malayan politics would not have any positive impact on Sarawak nor in Malaya itself.
The other question on the minds of many is that, will the PH loss in Tanjong Piai lead to a domino effect? Well, don’t count on this loss to carry into GE15. In Malaysian politics, the scenario changes from day to day. The weather it seems is more predictable.
For us in Sarawak, we should stick to a stable coalition which pays attention to its people and pray they don’t suck Sarawak as a whole into their battlefield.
The old African adage applies here, when elephants fight it’s the ants that suffer. Let’s make sure we don’t become the ants.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the New Sarawak Tribune.
