KUCHING: Sarawak DAP will not be able to retain all its six parliamentary seats in the 15th General Election (GE15), especially after the party’s huge defeat in the state polls in December last year.
However, it is also premature to predict which seats they will lose as it boils down to the focus of their campaign strategy.
Political analyst Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said based on the current situation, DAP may lose half its parliamentary seats in Sarawak due to vote-splitting.
Since the local and peninsula opposition parties cannot find a common ground to ensure a straight fight against Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), DAP may lose again due to the same factor/ reason for their defeat in the last state election.
“Right now, they may lose half of the six seats they won in the last general election. But, it is hard to predict now as we need to look at their campaign later,” he told New Sarawak Tribune.
Apart from that, he said, DAP leaders in Sarawak are no longer popular.
On Friday, Sarawak DAP Chairman Chong Chieng Jen said there is a good chance for Pakatan Harapan (PH) to form the next federal government if the party retains its six seats, which contributed to the change of the government in the last general election in 2018.
The seats are Mas Gading, Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Sibu and Lanang.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) senior lecturer Prof Dr Lee Kuok Tiung said it is unlikely that PH will return to power as there is not much ‘wind of change’, after the four-year-long political uncertainty in the country.
He said people had given PH the opportunity to lead the country in 2018, but they performed badly.
“Besides, there is no anti-Najib sentiment, in fact, there is sympathy sentiment towards him now,” he said, referring to the former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is currently serving his 12-year jail term.
Lee also felt that it is going to be an uphill battle for DAP to retain all their parliamentary seats in GE15, after failing to materialise what they promised in the last general election, including the recognition of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC).
Besides, they also cancelled several infrastructure projects in Sarawak.
In the last state election, he said, DAP was voted out of Kota Sentosa, Bukit Assek, Pelawan and Tanjung Batu in addition to failing to regain Pujut and won only Padungan and Pending.
“Based on that, I don’t think they can retain all the seats in GE15. But, things will change after nomination day as the right candidate is crucial.
“Many voters are fence sitters, who will decide, depending on who is the candidate,” he explained.
On whether the implementation of the lowering of the voting age to 18 (Undi18) and automatic voter registration will benefit DAP, Lee said based on his study, those aged between 18 and 20 are apolitical.
In order to win the votes from this age group, he said, focus must be given to the pertinent issues that relate to them, such as education, including the recognition of UEC.
Meanwhile, first-time voters, those who finally will be eligible to cast their votes due to the implementation of automatic voter registration – are unlikely to vote.
“The drastic increase of voters was due to the implementation of automatic voter registration instead of Undi18. But, these people are likely those who never bother to become a voter (even when they have reached the age), thus, I doubt they will come out to vote this time,” he said.
