Whether we like it or not, the current unrest in Umno will have a far-reachingeffect on the political climate of Malaysia in the immediate future. It looks more and more like a proxy war between Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in their efforts to fortify their positions within Pakatan Harapan (PH).
This follows signs that Anwar is getting increasingly uneasy with Mahathir’s recent moves on Umno members of Parliament which succeeded to induce mass resignation from Sabah Umno, immediately followed by six resignation of Malayan Umno MPs.
It is quite obvious that all of these started when Dr Mahathir found himself only backed by 12 MPs from his own party which makes him a sitting duck prime minister in the 222-seat Parliament.
From whatever angle one looks at it, Dr Mahathir is indeed a master strategist, a class by himself in the country’s political arena and for his opponents, a politician dangerous to underrate or ignore.
A few months ago it was difficult to imagine how he could move so effectively and fast on Umno, a party synonymous with Malay nationalism. Yet when he made his moves, the Malays are awestruck by the exodus as well as the prospects of more resignations.
There were no voices of disapprovals as if the Malays have just started to understand him. I have interviewed a few Malayan friends from retired government service on what they thought of the current events.
All of them love Umno and what it stood for over the last six decades. But to them the current exodus of MPs is something necessary to purify the party now overshadowed by Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s image, which means Umno chief Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi and those closely connected with Najib must go.
To most of them if Zahid remains in his position, Umno will soon meet its demise, though few still think that the party will still retains its hardcore older members who still remember how difficult life before Umno. People over 50 years of age make up 40 percent of the total voting population.
A recent analysis inThe Starnewspaper indicated the remaining 38 Umno MPs will likely stick with the party, but nevertheless will decide to prop up Dr Mahathir should there be any vote of no confidence against him.
They will act as such not so much out of love for Dr Mahathir but more to prevent Anwar becoming the prime minister.
To the Malays, this could be the most reasonable stand to take, since Dr Mahathir is more trustworthy and more consistent than Anwar in his actions to protect Malay and Islamic rights.
Malays, however tend to forget the fact that it was Dr Mahathir who promised in the UN that Malaysia would ratify the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD).
It was Dr Mahathir who made a U-turn when facing early signs of stiff resistance from anti-ICERD movements and it was him who moved to clip the wings of the Malaysian royalties two decades ago.
Still, the Malays give an edge to Dr Mahathir since Anwar is seen uninterested in Malay agenda altogether.
The general support for Dr Mahathir in Malayan politics may be understandable, but in the Borneo states, the environment is murkier. Even his ally Warisan in Sabah is not happy with the mass resignation from Sabah Umno since this would mean PPBM could end up becoming the largest in the state.
This could be the clearest case of trickery and treachery, a phrase used by a friend, which is the hallmark of Mahathirism. The Sabahans may also be at fault here, who out of a history of deep distrust of each other, conveniently set aside their MA63 struggle if needs be, in favour of the embrace from a big brother from Malaya.
The situation in Sarawak is quite similar, but here Dr Mahathir still fails to make an impact. Given Dr Mahathir’s penchant for intrigue and betrayal, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) needs to be more wary since its declaration to cooperate with the federal government is only a loose relationship compared with the formal relationship Dr Mahathir has with PKR, DAP and Warisan.
If he is willing to destroy any of these PH parties, what is GPS to him? The only credible reason for him to hold fire is if he is convinced that by-passing GPS would only bring benefits to PKR and not PPBM. Even then, the difference between the two parties are becoming less clear since the Sarawak PKR is more aligned to Mahathir than Anwar.
Probably, GPS could breathe a sigh of relief over the lacklustre reception from Sarawakians at the launch of PPBM in Bintulu early this month.
This is not unexpected since PPBM, just as in Malaya, is eyeing Malay-Muslim seats. But in Sarawak the Malay-Muslims are united and gave over 80 percent support to Sarawak BN (now GPS) in PRU 14, hence giving slim prospects for Dr Mahathir’s party here. Even then, it is best for Sarawakians to be alert to face his divide and rule tactics.
It is envisaged that the coming state election will witness the mother of all battles in Sarawak, in particular in the non-Muslim Bumiputera areas. This is because the Chinese are already won by PH with 81 percent of their votes in GE 14, while the Muslim Bumiputera areas are still strongly behind GPS.
As for the non-Muslim Bumiputeras, this looks set to be the main battleground although voter support for GPS here is still fairly comfortable.
In spite of the above, GPS should not ignore the importance of Chinese votes as like the Bumiputeras, the Chinese also lookup to a more autonomous Sarawak rather than PH which is more and more dominated by Dr Mahathir.
It should be noted that the impact of PH campaigns in Sarawak saw different patterns than in Malaya. In Malaya BN lost approximately 17 percent Malay votes, in Sarawak BN only lost 4-8 percent of Malay-Bumiputera votes compared with the general election in 2013.
This could be because Dr Mahathir did not really campaign in Sarawak and Sarawak voters are less sensitive to national issues. Things will be much more challenging in the next state election as all the PH heavyweights will campaign backed by Federal government facilities and institutions.
