When we see the giant, why do we automatically assume the battle is his for the winning?
— Malcolm Gladwell, Canadian journalist
Speculation among kedai kopi politicians is rife that Sarawak DAP strongman Chong Chieng Jen will face off with SUPP chief Datuk Seri Dr Sim Kui Hian in the latter’s own hor siew (Chinese for stronghold).
Though for some time — since early this year — intelligence sources have pointed to the likelihood of the Kota Sentosa incumbent “running away” to Padungan, another safe DAP seat, the latest coffeeshop talk has caught many people by surprise.
The sources said the reason for the possible seat switch is that the traditional DAP supporters in Kota Sentosa were pissed off by the party’s below-par performance in the constituency, especially when Chong was in the Pakatan Harapan federal government from May 2018 to February 2020 where he could have used his position as a deputy minister to bring development to his constituency.
Apparently, Kota Sentosa constituents were dissatisfied with Chong’s performance and ground assessment of a possible backlash against the party had prompted the incumbent to relook his position in the constituency.
The Sarawak Pakatan Harapan chairman’s likely opponents in the 12th state polls in Kota Sentosa are SUPP’s Wilfred Yap and PSB’s John Lau.
Yap, a lawyer, is the party’s Public Complaints Bureau chief and the SUPP Kota Sentosa chairman. In the 2016 election, he polled 7,228 votes to Chong’s 10,047 votes, reducing the latter’s vote majority to 2,819.
Chong had defeated SUPP’s Alfred Yap — who has since retired from politics — by a 4,824-vote majority in the 2011 state election when he polled 12,594 votes to Yap’s 7,770.
In the 2006 polls, Chong scraped through with the narrowest of margin, winning only by a 531-vote majority against Alfred Yap. Chong had polled 6,579 votes to Yap’s 6,048 votes.
Wilfred has not stopped working in his constituency since the 2016 defeat. In fact, constituents have been approaching him for help to resolve their problems and he’s one not to turn them down.
PSB’s Lau is also said to be moving on the ground for a while now, meeting voters and hearing out their problems.
It’s understandable why Chong is thinking of moving to a “safer” seat. Padungan? Yes! But Batu Kawah not likely.
If Chong is planning to emulate former MCA president Tan Sri Lee San Choon — who went right into the lion’s den of DAP strongman and incumbent Dr Chen Man Hin and took the latter on in his parliamentary seat of Seremban in the 1982 general election — he is in for a surprise.
Lee, never a man to shirk from a challenge, moved from his safe parliamentary seat of Segamat to Seremban after DAP secretary-general Lim Kit Siang challenged Lee to stand in a Chinese-majority seat to prove the Chinese supported MCA.
Lee won by a 845-vote majority, defeating Chen who was the national DAP chairman.
There are several reasons why Chong is unlikely to challenge first-termer Dr Sim in Batu Kawah to prove that Chinese voters still supported DAP.
For one, Dr Sim is extremely popular among the voters, Chinese and Bumiputeras alike. He has not stopped working in his constituency since the day he won the seat in 2016.
I was among the first to congratulate him (I was at the counting centre covering the results) when the returning officer announced the results late that night and I remember the victor telling me, “Rajah, my work as a YB starts right tonight.”
Another reason why Dr Sim will get to keep the seat is that the people of Batu Kawah have experienced tremendous development in the last five years. His service centre is always busy daily with people approaching the centre staff for help.
As one party worker put it, “The voters in Batu Kawah have benefited immensely with Dr Sim as their elected representative. Not only is he always on the ground since the day he was elected but he has also brought tremendous progress to the constituency.
“In fact, I believe Dr Sim will even better his majority this time around.”
In the last state election, Dr Sim defeated DAP’s Christina Chiew Wang See and independent Liu Thian Leong. He polled 6,414 votes to win by a 2,085-vote majority.
Also, this time around, Dr Sim’s close rapport among GPS component parties, especially PBB, will see the coalition helping to rally Bumiputera supporters behind the incumbent.
On paper Chong may appear the favourite, but like I said earlier, Dr Sim’s excellent ties with the Bumiputeras and GPS components will give the latter some advantage.
PBB, with its awesome machinery at grassroots level, will ensure Bumiputeras give their votes to the cardiologist.
If at all Chong manages to get the guts up and faces off with Dr Sim, my money’s on the latter — with backing from the Bumiputera community and some support from the minuscule Indian community plus Chinese SUPP supporters — to retain the seat for GPS.
But take it from me, the battle of the heavyweights is not going to happen! And I bet my last ringgit on Chong either moving to Padungan or defending his Kota Sentosa seat.
