Politics is about a lot more than winning and losing. I think politics at its best is about compromise, shades of grey and about issues.
– Matt Taibbi, American journalist
Undeniably, seat distribution among component parties or allies within a grand coalition is something of a litmus test to their cooperation, understanding and cohesion.
Even in an established coalition where component parties have fixed “traditional” seats – or seats that were contested or held by a certain political party in the past, it is almost certain there would be an overlap in terms of its claim.
This is often the cause of pre-election friction or tremors and would cause tempers to flare in what is already a high-pressure environment.
That brings us now to Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) – two arch-rivals who made an unlikely pact post 15th general election (GE15) to form a federal government along with parties from Sarawak and Sabah.
A six-month old relationship is now being put to the test as both would need to make compromises to accommodate each other.
There will be a state election in six states this year – Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Pulau Pinang, Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.
Of these six, three are controlled by PH (Selangor, Pulau Pinang and Negeri Sembilan). The remaining three are controlled by Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), a component of opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN).
BN had previously controlled Negeri Sembilan, Terengganu and Kedah until 2018 – the same election year they lost federal power.
Pulau Pinang, Selangor and Kelantan had been dominated by Pakatan and PAS for some time.
While it is unlikely that PH would be willing to give way to Umno to contest for the Menteri Besar position in the three states the former is currently controlling – Selangor, Pulau Pinang and Negeri Sembilan – the stake for the other three states is open for discussion.
Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) communications director Khalid Abdul Samad has made the suggestion that PH would let BN take the lead in the three states of Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.
Whether this is the official position of PH, it is up for debate. BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has recently shot down such suggestion, describing it as “merely Khalid’s own opinion”.
Possibly, Ahmad Zahid and the Umno leadership is looking to stake their claim for Negeri Sembilan, which the party still probably regards as a BN stronghold.
It is probably not a coincidence too that Ahmad Zahid had left the seat negotiations for BN to his deputy, Datuk Seri Mohamad Hassan – the former Negeri Sembilan MB for 14 years until 2018.
Mohamad Hassan, the Umno deputy president was recently elected as Rembau MP, enabling him to represent the party in Parliament as well as being the defence minister in the current unity government cabinet.
It is noteworthy to also point out that he is still the opposition leader in the Negeri Sembilan state legislature. Definitely, regaining control of Negeri Sembilan must be on his, and by extension, Umno’s agenda.
After all, Negeri Sembilan is not a stronghold of PAS, the party which has been gaining prominence and support as witnessed during the last general election, as opposed to in Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.
Realistically, if BN is going to win anywhere, it would be in Negeri Sembilan. The Green Wave of Perikatan Nasional (PN) would surely guarantee a tough fight in Kedah and Terangganu.
At a time where PAS’ popularity is at an all-time high, recapturing Kelantan is very much out of the question. But regardless, Umno is the federal unity government coalition’s best hope to regain seats in the PAS states.
Umno is Pakatan’s answer to PAS and Bersatu, in a political climate whereby identity politics reigns supreme, but whether they are up to the task remains to be seen.
The official word from pundits and observers is that the contest in the six states will be too close to call given the less than definite election results in the previous year’s general election.
“Fluid” is the operative word – but then again what remains true is that BN and PH would not repeat the same mistake of underestimating the influence of Perikatan among the electorate.
The wind might be shifting from what it was during GE15 – the unity government has shown what it is capable of in terms of its policies during the past six months.
But regardless, the common issue remains – the public’s trepidation over the state of the economy and the high living costs.
The bread-and-butter issues will definitely be the topic of debate during the upcoming state elections.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
