Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
– Ernest Benn, British publisher, writer and political publicist
All went well with no untoward incident reported during the nomination process for elections in six states on Saturday (July 29). Nomination was also smooth for the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat by-election.
Perhaps party members and supporters were level-headed this time around, though the heavy presence of security personnel could have deterred troublemakers.
This is the first time Selangor, Penang, Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan and Negeri Sembilan are holding their state elections separately from the general election.
According to Election Commission statistics, there are 9,773,571 registered voters who are eligible to vote on August 12 with Selangor having the highest number of 3,747,057, followed by Kedah (1,585,085), Kelantan (1,411,912), Penang (1,234,198), Terengganu (930,894) and Negeri Sembilan (864,425).
The 14-day campaign period for the state elections and the by-election will run until Aug 11. A total of 570 candidates are eyeing to be YBs in the state elections involving 245 seats – Selangor (56), Kelantan (45), Penang (40), Kedah (36), and Negeri Sembilan (36) and Terengganu (32).
One hundred and sixty-eight of the candidates in the six state polls are from Perikatan Nasional (PN), 137 from Pakatan Harapan (PH), 108 from Barisan Nasional (BN), 77 from PAS, 13 from Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM), 19 from Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), four from Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM), two from Penang Front Party (PFP) and one from Parti Utama Rakyat (PUR).
The race for the 245 state assembly seats has also attracted 41 Independents. Selangor, Kedah and Negeri Sembilan have the highest with 10 each, followed by Kelantan and Penang with five each.
One never-say-die Independent is not throwing in the towel yet. Undeterred Izat Bukhary Ismail Bukhary, 56, who has faced defeats in two general and four state elections, is still determined to try yet again. He will use the pen symbol in the Kota Lama state seat in Kelantan.
Women are also making a significant presence in the polls with a total of 71 candidates appearing on nomination day.
PH has the most women candidates, with 26. BN is fielding 12 women, PN 19, while MUDA is fielding 10 women. Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM) has two women, and PSM one.
One significant observation on nomination day was the adoption of hi-tech by the police who used drones to monitor the nomination process. Bukit Aman has confirmed that drones will also be used on polling day. Malaysia is certainly on the right track in its digitisation process.
Perhaps it’s only a matter of time that Malaysia will adopt electronic voting or e-voting. Will it be on time for the 16th general election? Let’s wait and see.
The August 12 elections will see straight fights in 180 seats, three-cornered contests in 51 seats, four-way fights in 13 seats and a five-cornered battle in one seat in Lunas, Kedah.
As for the age of age of the contestants, the Election Commission said 204 of the candidates are between 50 and 59 years old, making them the biggest group. A total of 111 candidates are aged 60 and above; 157 between 40 and 49 years, 83 candidates between 30 and 39, and 17 candidates between 21 and 29.
The oldest is 80-year-old Ravinder Singh of PRM who is standing in Pantai Jerejak, Penang, while the youngest is MUDA’s Melanie Ting Yi-Hlin, 23, who is trying her luck in Bukit Antarabangsa, Selangor.
Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) chief and Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari, and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) chairman and Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor declared their support to the unity government of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim by accompanying him and unity government’s candidates to several nomination centres in Selangor.
Anwar acknowledged their presence by thanking them.
Meanwhile, I believe the results in the six states are quite predictable. Based on the results of the last general election, political observers predict PN will retain Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu while PH-BN will keep Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.
According to Ong Kian Ming, director of the Philosophy, Politics and Economic (PPE) programme at Taylor’s University, unless there are big swings in favour of either PH-BN or PN among Malay voters (perhaps more likely) or non-Malay voters (much less likely), the anticipated outcome of the three PN and three PH-BN states is obvious.
The upside for PH-BN is higher because of the potential of higher vote transferability from PH to BN in Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan and from BN to PH in the same states (but with a lower probability).
Ong says an important concern of Anwar’s ruling coalition is the extent to which supporters of PH and BN will likely “transfer” their votes to their former political rivals.
And the question on most people’s minds is whether PH will be able to increase its share of Malay support by working with Umno.
Adds Ong: “While the overall results of these state elections are not likely to affect the stability of the federal government, the performance of PH and BN will still be important both politically and economically.
“Politically, the results will influence the thinking within Umno of the strategic advantages of working with PH in future elections. It will also affect the overall confidence of Umno leaders and grassroots members in Umno president and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
