It’s the rainy season in Sabah now and it’s that time of the year where you see frogs jumping from one spot to another. Not surprisingly, ‘political frogs’ have also emerged.
For political analysts and those familiar with Sabah politics, what happened on Wednesday is not at all shocking. They had it coming.
Cases of Umno lawmakers defecting to Pakatan Harapan (PH) after the embarrassing downfall of Barisan Nasional (BN) have been rife immediately after the 14th general election (GE14); party hoping is the after-effects of that defeat.
Sabah saw the defection of five BN members to Parti Warisan Sabah, giving its president Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal the majority to form the state government immediately after GE14.
On Wednesday, more than 14 Sabah Umno elected representatives quit the party and they expressed full support for the PH government under Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
If you can still remember, in October, Bersatu Supreme Council member Datuk Kadir Jasin claimed that there was a possibility of up to 40 Umno MPs jumping ship to the party.
A photograph of a meeting between Dr Mahathir and a few Umno leaders last October went viral on Thursday and this has led to various political interpretations by the rakyat.
Now, everything is in the open for everyone to see – a solid proof that there is truth to what Kadir said about two months ago.
Sabah is known as a state where nothing is impossible in politics, including political frogs jumping from one party to another.
In the latest exodus, four MPs, nine assemblypersons, and 22 out of 25 division heads, including Datuk Seri Dr Salleh Said Keruak and Tan Sri Pandikar Amin Mulia, both former allies of former premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak have defected.
It’s not difficult to guess the standard reasons or justifications for the drastic action. Yes, for the sake of the voters, the rakyat and the constituencies.
Can we simply swallow the reasons given or should we take it with a pinch of salt? Surely no!
There are various factors for them to crossover, inter alia, position, stability, allocations and the need to stay relevant in the current political landscape.
One of the lucrative pull factors is for the sake of political survival because once they are in the opposition they are in fact in the political wilderness.
Imagine, after being in power for 61 years, they now find themselves in the opposition.
In politics, as the popular adage says, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.
The origin of this axiom is attributed to Lord Palmerston, John Henry Temple of Great Britain, but most world leaders, including in Malaysia have adopted it to justify their policies and actions.
Political leaders from Sabah seemingly learned from the popular aphorism in politics.
With 14 YBs out of Umno, is there still light at the end of the tunnel for the party which came to Sabah in the early 90s? Or is this the beginning of the end for Umno?
With the political exodus, Sabah Umno is certain to be crippled and weakened, especially when it is widely speculated that Dr Mahathir is set to establish a Bersatu chapter in Sabah, and that these former Umno leaders will join the prime minister’s party.
However, some Umno leaders believe the dawn will come and shed light on the party which is now at its lowest ebb since GE14.
Umno, to some quarters, including the political frogs, has become rudderless after losing badly in the election. Therefore, the need to quit the party and become Independent representative – at least for now until such time there is green light from leaders of PH component parties, i.e. PKR and Bersatu.
Who will join PKR and who will join Bersatu? This is the dilemma because if they join Bersatu now they may be sidelined by Anwar Ibrahim when he becomes the prime minister later.
Selangor DAP lawmaker Ronnie Liu revealed that Dr Mahathir had once expressed in a meeting that Umno was “useless rubbish” and hence Bersatu should not be a “rubbish collector”.
Or is this another backpedalling or big U-turn on the part of Dr Mahathir just to fulfil his political agenda.
Or has Dr Mahathir forgotten what he had said in Selangor on the night of April 22, 2010?
According to him then, it was dangerous to trust “frogs”, for one we would never know where they would jump to next.
“Do not put your trust in this frog. What happens if he is drunk? How is he going to do his work?” he was quoted as saying. In fact, Dr Mahathir also called for the party-hopping culture to be buried.
Is Dr Mahathir still telling us not to trust “frogs”, or has he changed his tune just because he wants to strengthen Bersatu knowing fully well he has only 12 MPs compared to 50 MPs in PKR led by Anwar?
Dr Mahathir can now be described as a “political frog” himself, after leaving the party that he had led for 22 years, and co-founded Bersatu.
He seemingly softened his stance towards “political frogs”, now saying that it is their democratic right to do so.
“We are a democratic government, we believe in democracy, and democracy allows frogs to jump,” he said recently.
Well under the constitution, it is not illegal to defect, but definitely it is immoral. Or politicians dont understand the meaning of morality in politics because for some of them, they have actually lost the moral high ground to talk about principles, ethics and moral.
Should party hoping be allowed? What are the effects on democracy and the two-party system that we propagated in consonant with Malaysia Baharu that we crave for?
The switches in allegiance and en masse defections not only are a dangerous development, but it goes against PH’s commitment to have socio-political reforms in Malaysia.
One thing is for sure. It goes completely against the will of the voters who convincingly voted out the BN government in GE14.
Our hope of having a two-party system is evaporating. It is a nail in the coffin for a mature democracy and a two-party system in the country.
With a diminishing number of MPs on the opposition bench, our hope of having a strong opposition who can act as check and balance in Parliament and Dewan Undangan Negeri is now just a mere dream.
The more Pakatan entertains the political frogs, the more disillusioned the rakyat will become with PH.
It would be a great betrayal to the rakyat if PH entertains the crossover by Umno political frogs.
“To accept them into Pakatan now would be a betrayal of the rakyat who wanted a real change, not merely a cosmetic one where old faces would still be a part of the new government.
“I wonder if Pakatan were to lose the next elections, would its MPs do the same and easily jump over to the other side?” DAP MP Ramkarpal Singh said in a statement on Thursday.
Or is PH no longer interested in reforming and transforming the country just because they are more interested in power game?
PKR and Bersatu are going to jostle for more power by enticing the political frogs from Umno which will change the political dynamics in PH. And who knows, more Umno frogs may cross over to either PKR or Bersatu in the coming months.
• Associate Professor Dr Jeniri Amir is a lecturer and political analyst at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.
