ON paper, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is almost certain to win 26 to 28 seats in the 15th general election (GE15).
Why not 31 seats? This statement is not prejudicial. In every analysis, we should expect the ‘worst case’ – with black or grey areas – possibly facing a losing and problematic situation. There is no such thing as a tie or 50-50 in political evaluations these days.
We should not be swayed by only the good facts that are presented, but instead should rely on facts and the real situation on the ground.
Bad news should be an important fact, and not be obscured from being heard. If detractors only dare to tell beautiful stories, what happened to Barisan Nasional (BN) in 2018 will surely happen again.
A year before 2018, the underground team repeatedly said that BN might be facing strong opposition, but Datuk Seri Najib Razak at that time chose to be swayed by the good news. He only found out the real situation at the last moment.
Currently, the analysis on the situation of the component parties are calm without having any internal crisis, providing solid support for the candidate, absence of sabotage, and an effective campaign strategy. That’s why some people put 26 to 28 seats as a realistic figure that could be won by GPS.
The lack of strong challengers, who only campaign in a casual manner is also a factor. So far, this writer has only found a handful of opposition candidates who are campaigning wholeheartedly and going all out to win the hearts of voters.
For each candidate, whether they are from the GPS or the opposition, support will increase day by day if the candidate is able to present an interesting personality and character. There is no more time for them to act arrogant, showing tiredness and ego. If they are less friendly, it means they will lose votes.
For this writer and those around, this number 26 came about after evaluating all areas which are contested. The other five seats may be winnable if efforts are re-doubled and campaign strategy is more focused.
It is not impossible for GPS to send its 31 candidates to the Dewan Rakyat, if the strategy used is correct like in the 12th Sarawak state election last year.
It should be remembered that not many dared to predict the victory of 76 seats in the last state election, even though some did a micro-analysis.
There are several things that contribute to this analysis in favour of GPS. One of the big factors is that GPS’s victory in the last state election still has great momentum.
At the same time, Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg’s earnestness in looking for additional income and continuously approving development projects in the state has had a great impact.
The people are more and more trusting, confident and excited, and this can be seen in any areas this writer visits.
For those who want to reject GPS, they will think carefully and hard this time, because defeat means they will lose.
The role of GPS as a determinant of the eventual Federal government as well as the determination to fight and obtain rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) is now beginning to be understood.
It is after the Sarawak government successfully utilised the power gained to increase the state’s revenue – so that the state government can reward its people with various assistance – in terms of economy, education and welfare.
Therefore, it is very important for GPS to have a large representation in the Dewan Rakyat.
A victory with a minimum of 26 seats also makes this party the choice to be a coalition member of any government that is formed. This party can be kingmaker and playmaker at once.
And as a party that has its ability, it deserves to get a big reward for senior positions such as the post of deputy prime minister while its members of Parliament are appointed to lead important ministries.
It is useless to be a minister if the entrusted ministry does not have power, budget and great influence in the government.
Because that is the truth, the people will continue to support GPS to gain this great influence.
The analogy is simple. When Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof became Minister of Public Works, the Pan Borneo Highway became a reality, while only after Datuk Seri Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar became Minister of Law and Parliament, the rights of Sarawak and Sabah in the MA63 and the Federal Constitution was successfully returned.
After November 19, GPS will indeed be popular and become a grab for coalition parties in Peninsular Malaysia. Winning 26 to 28 seats is not a small feat, not to mention if it wins 31 seats.
Therefore, it will be like a beautiful lady wanting to be owned. And this is the time GPS will demand what it wants before the ‘wedding’.
