‘If you don’t participate in politics, you are going to be governed by those who do.’
– Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Governor of California.
AS the six states that will go to the polls this year announce the dissolution of their state assemblies, predictions are being made on the outcome.
Not that it changes the grand scheme of things — the federal unity government will stay, at least until the end of its term barring unforeseen circumstances.
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will remain prime minister until the end of the term, and as I said earlier, barring unforeseen circumstances.
With that out of the way, will the results of the state elections in Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan, Negeri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang have any bearing on anything?
Surely there must be a reason as to why it is so important not only to the opposition parties in Perikatan Nasional (PN) which have started their ceramah tours but also the current coalition government.
I mean, it is no secret that certain decisions on policies have been held off by the present government due to political considerations.
The government of the day, as any advisor would tell the ministers and the power brokers, must remain in the good graces of the people.
Meaning, any efforts to bring about drastic change or reforms which can be hard to swallow at times to a section of the population are being kept under wraps.
Major decisions — things like reviewing subsidies, whitelisting or filtering aid recipients and economic decisions — are neatly being put in the in the KIV folders.
Now what’s more important is optics or as the old political term would say, creating the “feel good factor”.
Those who are not aligned with the government of the day, would accuse Putrajaya of not living up to expectations. There is hype surrounding the Pakatan Harapan (PH) assuming the leadership again, and it did after GE15.
But however, since it is not fully in control, i.e., the government is made up of other factions, United Malay National Organisation (UMNO), Barisan Nasional (BN) components, smaller parties, independents and factions from Sarawak and Sabah, this has led to compromises being made.
In some way, this helped Pakatan and shielded a lot of the blame, even from its own supporters. This is apparently its narrative for not living up to its promise.
While all things seem tidy in the government, the leaders working well with each other, softening the disenchantment from the grassroots, is another thing entirely.
The grassroots in UMNO, for a fact, hate Pakatan — more particularly, DAP and likewise. The wounds are too deep to be papered over by a loose pact in the federal government, given the attacks against one another in years past.
The hostility is still there as seen in the interactions by their cybertroopers on social media.
In fact, the call by certain UMNO leaders for the grassroots to “vote for DAP” has not gone well. It seems like a bridge too far, and probably, too soon.
But then again in politics, the goal is to consolidate support. That is the practical thing to do, even more so against an opposition that is on a united front in the shape of PN.
Like it or not, UMNO needs Pakatan and vice-versa. The prevailing opinion now is that, in Malay-majority seats, Pakatan and DAP will cast their votes for UMNO. No question.
However, the same cannot be said in mixed-majority seats or urban areas. UMNO grassroots are likely to be split over giving their votes to DAP or giving them to another Malay coalition, that is Perikatan.
The sentiment is that for Pakatan and DAP grassroots, UMNO is the lesser evil to Perikatan. However, for the UMNO grassroots, with the DAP-shaped wounds yet to heal, it is not too big of a task for them to shift their support towards Perikatan.
They need to resolve this and fast. Otherwise, they risk losing votes and consequentially, their grip on the PH states — Negeri Sembilan, Selangor and Penang.
While Penang is seen to be less of a concern, the more pressing threat is to Negeri Sembilan and Selangor.
Perikatan is tasking prominent Selangor figure and former Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Azmin Ali to lead the charge. At best, PH is likely to see its majority in the Selangor assembly being slashed.
That is not so much the eroding of PH support, hardcore supporters will stick by the party. The issue is the growing disenchantment of UMNO supporters.
While their love for the party is unquestionable, their disapproval of the leadership could lead to them throwing away their votes.
Negeri Sembilan was recently a BN state before GE14. Questions linger whether it can boast a similar foothold in the coming state election and complement Pakatan.
The safe bet now is status quo. Meaning Pakatan retains all of its states. Same goes for Perikatan which is looking to maintain its grip on Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.
Retaking Kelantan and Terengganu now may just be a lost cause for Pakatan and UMNO given the support that PAS enjoys in the two states.
Kedah was most recently a Pakatan state from 2018 until 2020. But things are looking bleak for it to retake the state. The current Kedah Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor, is proving to be a popular figure.
He has proven himself to be a stalwart to Perikatan, even being appointed as the coalition’s election director.
Analysts say the election results will be tied at three to three. Perikatan will mount a serious challenge to take Selangor and Negeri Sembilan but will probably fall short of the needed number with Pakatan surviving by the skin of its teeth.
Meanwhile, little contest will be seen in Pakatan’s stronghold Penang, as well as Perikatan’s stronghold, Kelantan and Negeri Sembilan. The people of Kedah will stick with the current administration due to the Sanusi factor. That is the prediction.
However, some analysis would be made on this result, if that is the case. It will show that UMNO’s influence is waning and brings lesser value to Pakatan in the federal government, effectively scrapping plans of a long-term electoral pact, if any.
That is the direct consequence of such result. UMNO is in its soul-searching phase as of now, it will get back on its feet, but it will need time.
The future of UMNO in the government is at stake. The disenchantment of its supporters needs addressing and quick.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
