I predict that, because of artificial intelligence and its ability to automate certain tasks that in the past were impossible to automate, not only will we have a much wealthier civilization, but the quality of work will go up very significantly and a higher fraction of people will have callings and careers relative to today.
– Jeff Bezos, American technology entrepreneur, investor and philanthropist
Every time my family and I go to Sushi King, I can’t help but think about how much convenience it has been when I find each table has a tablet in front of it where I can place our order, and then a few minutes later, the plates reach our table.
I also really enjoy the experience of being able to order additional food when I want it and not having to deal with a server.
I can see all the items with nice photos, and while you eat, you can order more food without having to flag someone down. It made me realise how much better it is than most servers.
They, however, still need servers to deliver the food, answer questions, and solve problems, but the people who are in a hurry and know what they want are free to order quickly on their own.
Then, when you’re ready to leave, you wouldn’t have to fight to find a server and get a bill; you could simply pay at the counter.
Now, the basic question being asked is very interesting indeed. Which is, well, what effect is the technological revolution going to have on employment in the next few years?
There are a few ways we could approach this conceptually. We might go and study which technologies are just about ready for prime time and then try to predict what they will do.
We might work it the other way around, thinking about which jobs currently done by humans might be susceptible to replacement by technology. We could look at past industrial revolutions and think through it that way.
We could even retreat into the realms of pure theory, as physicist and science populariser Michio Kaku tends to do, and insist that it doesn’t actually matter all that much.
Human needs, imaginations and desires are infinite so people will always find something to do since Adam first succumbed to the deliciousness of Eve’s apple.
And if we ever do get to the point where human needs and desires are satiated then what the heck do politicians care about jobs for?
Umm, generally we’ve never heard of housewives, retirees, students, poor and incomeless starving to death without having a job, no? Well, isn’t that great?
Technology is unquestionably a great boon to humanity. Yet like almost everything else in reality, not every additional amount of it is worthwhile.
So here, what we want is not maximum possible technology. We want only technology that is worth its cost. Advanced technologies are, after all, advanced. Isn’t it always good to advance?
No. To see why, consider another concept that, like technological advance, conveys the impression of always being desirable, namely, safety. How often have you heard someone declare that “You can’t be too safe!”?
But you can, indeed, be “too safe”. If you drive a Perodua Axia, you are less safe while on the roads than you’d be if you drive a Toyota Hilux. And so in choosing to drive Axia, you reveal that the greater safety of the Hilux is not worth, to you, such a car’s higher price or less-attractive styling.
In short, maximum possible safety isn’t worthwhile to you.
Safety is valuable, but not infinitely so. And technology is no different.
Because each year roughly a million Malaysians turn 18 years of age, each year a large number of unskilled and inexperienced individuals enter the workforce.
All of them who enter the workforce are willing and able to perform any of a large number of tasks that require only the barest of skills. Because these teenagers can and want to perform many of these tasks at wages lower than the costs of using machines as to use machines in such cases is wasteful.
While the likes of self-service kiosk appear to be more advanced than employing humans to do these jobs, economically they are less advanced if these technologies are used only because government prohibits the employment of low-skilled workers who are incapable of producing at least RM5.05 of value each hour.
There is still the question of what we do about it of course. What is automated and how isn’t the interesting thing here. Rather, it’s what that newly liberated labour will do.
What are the jobs of the future? While we can make some educated guesses, the true answer is that we don’t know.
There are plenty of things we as human would like to do more of, but the only way to find out how that translates into economic activity is to leave people to suck it and see.
Rather than governments trying to second-guess the future, we should rely on the experimentation which only a market economy provides.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the New Sarawak Tribune.
