Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.
– Abraham Lincoln, 16th US president
The 15th general election (GE15) is beginning to be the most intense in the country’s history.
There was drama at the nomination centre for the Tenom parliamentary seat in Sabah on November 5 after election officials rejected the nomination papers of Peter Anthony, the president of Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), who has an unresolved court case.
Some 300 dissatisfied supporters of Peter tried to storm the hall and police took action by firing tear gas to disperse the supporters.
Such incident was unheard of in past elections where security personnel resorted to teargassing unruly supporters. Expect more drama after the results are announced on November 19.
Let’s look into some facts and figures of GE15.
Twenty parties and 945 candidates, including 108 independents, are contesting the 222 parliamentary seats and 117 state seats, or rather 118 – taking into account the Bugaya state seat in Sabah which was left vacant following the death of its incumbent Manis Muka Mohd Darah in 2020.
There are nine straight fights and many multi-cornered fights. All in all there are 54 three-cornered fights, 82 four-cornered fights, 43 five-cornered fights, 24 six-cornered fights, five eight-cornered fights, one nine-cornered fight and one 10-cornered fights.
As for the state seats, 434 candidates will fight it out in Perak for 59 seats, Pahang (42) and Perlis (15). The rest of the states, mostly opposition held ones, will wait for the full term before holding their state elections. Sarawak held theirs in 2021 and Sabah in 2020.
There are 389 parliamentary candidates aged below 50, and 258 candidates aged above 60. And 198 candidates are below 50 years old and 92 candidates above 60 for the state assembly seats.
While the 14-day campaign period in Malaya will be intense and vociferous, expect a tame affair in the Land of the Hornbills.
Candidates and their supporters had always conducted their campaigns in accordance with the law, and the nomination process in Sarawak was smooth and incident free where 92 candidates are vying for Sarawak’s 31 parliamentary seats. In the 2018 general election, there were 78 candidates.
Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) is contesting all 31 seats; Pakatan Harapan (PH) 30; Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) 10; Perikatan Nasional (PN) four; Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak Baru (PBDSB) three; Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM), Parti Kesedaran Sarawak (Sedar) and Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK) one each.
PBK is fielding candidates in four seats but their candidates will adopt the PSB symbol in three seats, namely Lanang, Mas Gading and Puncak Borneo. The party is using its own symbol in Puncak Borneo.
There will be 11 Independents this time around – five more than in 2018. In the last general election, two Independents managed to win their seats. But this time around it will be tough for any of them to win. Most if not all will lose their RM15,000 deposit.
The then Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN) won 19 of the 31 seats. PKR contested 15 seats and won four and DAP contested nine seats and won six. Amanah, PAS, STAR, PBDSB, PBK and Sarawak Peace Party lost in all the contested seats.
Honestly speaking, apart from DAP and perhaps PSB, I don’t see the other parties posing any threat to GPS.
The real fight is expected to be between GPS and DAP in some of the Chinese-majority areas – Bandar Sibu, Sarikei, Lanang, Kuching, Stampin and Miri. The Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) which makes up the GPS coalition – the others being Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) – may deliver more seats this time after failing miserably in 2018, winning only the Bidayuh-majority seat of Serian through Datuk Seri Richard Riot.
The party might deliver four seats, or maybe even five. Apart from Serian, it may win Stampin, Sarikei and Miri. With some help from its coalition partners, it could win Lanang.
PBB, as expected, will win all its 14 contested seats; PRS, five of its six given seats; and PDP, two of its four seats.
PRS, which is fielding its president Datuk Joseph Salang Gandum in Julau, will witness a rematch with PBM president Datuk Larry Sng. The seat can go either way.
I see GPS winning 25 or 26 seats and retaining its kingmaker role after GE15.
Whichever coalition – BN, PH or PN – gets more seats than the other two, it will still be not enough to form a government. I doubt any one of them can win the minimum 112 seats to helm Putrajaya. This is where the Malayan coalition will come running to GPS to help form the federal government.
Whatever it is, it’s still the numbers game and we cannot be complacent. GPS should go for more than 25 seats. Twenty-eight or more is achievable. Let’s get that figure to maintain our role as the kingmaker!
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
