KUCHING: Many political analysts and observers have predicted that no single party would be able to win a majority in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat in this 15th general election (GE15).
Political analyst Professor Dr Neilson Ilan Mersat stated that this is because there are many political parties and coalitions contesting in the election.
With Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) set to be a kingmaker in this election, he said the party has an upper hand and has the potential to win big.
New Sarawak Tribune had the opportunity to get Dr Neilson’s informed views on the matter.
ST: Can you comment on the competition between political parties in Sarawak for this GE15?
Neilson: If it were compared to the state election last year, there is not much competition among political parties in Sarawak.
We can see that there are not many parties contesting such as the Barisan Nasional (BN) while the Pakatan Harapan (PH) is contesting in the state but the number is not many.
We can also see that local parties like Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) are not as prominent as they were in the state election.
However, I do believe that this GE15 is interesting, and I hope the voting percentage would be high given that we will see many first-time voters especially those 18-years-old fulfilling their civic duty.
ST: What do you think of the political parties’ campaign strategies?
Neilson: This time they are a little free compared to during the Covid-19 pandemic.
While there is not much restriction in terms of standard operating procedure (SOP), this does not mean we should not be vigilant seeing as the Covid-19 virus is still present.
We can see that the political parties have been able to mobilise themselves especially in reaching out to the rural areas for face-to-face interactions and engagements.
As for the urban areas, there are many posters, banners, and flags being put up, so it is more colourful compared to the last state election.
ST: What are the impacts of manifestos offered by political parties?
Neilson: It is not unusual for political parties and individuals to come up with a manifesto or letter of appeal to the voters during an election.
Manifesto is often promises, it plays an important role for the voters thus it must be holistic and most importantly, doable.
Voters would view these promises and ask if they are realistic and if they can be achieved.
For GPS, their manifesto is based on their achievements and pledges that are holistic as well as doable.
When we make promises, it must be comprehensive and ensure that no one is left behind.
ST: In your view, which political party has the upper hand in this GE15?
Neilson: Looking at GPS’s victorious win in the previous state election, we can see that it indeed has the upper hand compared to other political parties.
In fact, we have heard that one of the reasons for BN not contesting in Sarawak is if GPS wins many seats, GPS will be willing to join or form an alliance.
Sarawak only has 31 parliamentary seats, but it is predicted that we can win more seats in comparison to the GE14.
I think this can be done if GPS has the right strategies such as winnable candidates and effective election machinery that can reach out to the voters.
I believe the question that remains a guessing game for everyone is on the number of seats that GPS will win.
ST: Many have predicted that there will be no clear win by any coalition or political party in this election, what are your thoughts on this?
Neilson: It is a fact for this election because we cannot tell which coalition or political party will be a clear winner.
The PH and Perikatan Nasional (PN) have their own component parties, the GPS is going solo – so, many have predicted that there will be no clear-cut win.
The way I see it, there will be a mixture of political parties to make a coalition to form the new federal government.
The formation of the coalition will depend on which political party is offering and bargaining.
ST: Do you believe that GPS will be a kingmaker in this election?
Neilson: There is indeed a potential for GPS to be a kingmaker in this election.
Political parties like BN can see this potential too which is why they are not contesting in Sarawak on the grounds of not offending or stepping on anyone’s toes.
GPS chairman and Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg has repeatedly said ‘we compete and win first, then we decide who should be our partner’.
If all goes well, GPS will be a kingmaker and it is very likely that they will win most of the parliamentary seats contested.
ST: This election will see many first-time voters casting their vote. Do you think the political parties are able to secure these new voters’ support?
Neilson: I believe the young generation are more focused on national level issues such as good governance, combating corruption and environmental sustainability which are issues that are close to their heart.
Of course, whichever political parties that can convince them on managing these issues will be able to win their support.
This election will be interesting with the participation of many first-time and young voters, we will see the impacts of their decision in the state and national political arena.
ST: Lastly, what do you think the voter turnout will be like for this election?
Neilson: Looking at the previous state election, the percentage of voter turnout in the urban areas was low in comparison to the rural areas.
This is something the political parties must address to ensure that the turnout would be high so that the percentage of voting is higher.
They must find out and address what are the issues or reasons why people were reluctant to go out and cast their vote in the previous state election.
This is one of the roles of the Election Commission (EC), political parties and social media.
If the percentage of voter turnout is low, people would question the direction of democracy in the nation.
As such, I would like to urge voters especially the young ones to come out and cast their vote.
