The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side of the hill.
– Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington
When it comes to answering the question of when the next general election (GE) will be held, just about everyone has his or her own take on it, but one thing is certain – every last one of those is based on absolute guesswork.
That is the reality, where we are left in the dark to what exactly the leaders in Malaya are thinking.
Earlier this month, it was reported that the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) top five will meet to decide on the GE15 date.
It was supposed to be on Saturday – whether today or the last one – but apparently this was postponed to Sept 30.
Political scientists, analysts and keen observers are punting that GE15 is imminent and can be called within weeks, if not days. Some said later this year and some even said next year.
It brings to the question of just why? Why is it the fate of the government of the day and the timing of when exactly Malaysians would go to the polls being decided by a group of individuals?
Politically, I know the answer. Traditionally, calling for GE is the prerogative of the Prime Minister who will advise the Yang di-Pertuan Agong for the dissolution of Parliament.
The PM is traditionally the head of the largest bloc in Parliament and holds sway in terms of decision making which ensures his decision is final and cannot be challenged.
This, I think, we can agree, is no longer the case for Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob. All this while it has been the decision of one. But there are also those arguing that it takes two – the consent of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.
It must be recalled though that the King had refused to accede to the request of then prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin for a declaration of a nationwide emergency in October 2020.
This has “sound constitutional basis” according to leading constitutional expert Datuk Emeritus Prof. Dr. Shad Saleem Faruqi who said life is larger than the law and no constitution is exhaustive or can anticipate every contingency.
“In addition to the constitutionally conferred discretionary powers mentioned in Article 40(2), there are probably other instances in which residual, reserve, prerogative and inherent powers of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong may come into play,” said Shad.
Regardless, the guessing game has led to calls for a fixed-term parliament where Parliament can only be dissolved.
Political analyst Prof Wong Chin Huat believes that in addition to giving a more predictable date for the GE, it would allow everyone to make long-term plans, serving the needs of the public as well as those in the administration in implementing policies.
Chin Huat suggested that Parliament could only be dissolved under two circumstances where a prime minister has lost the confidence of the parties and when two-thirds of MPs want an early dissolution.
“Then he (the prime minister) can seek the consent of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament.
“If not, let Parliament complete (its five-year term), this also means (in the current situation) the government should be given the opportunity to complete its work until July 15, 2023,” he said.
This was however shot down by Universiti Putra Malaya dean of humanities, management and science Prof Datuk Dr Jayum Jawan, polled by The Malaysia Insight, who viewed there was nothing wrong with the current system.
“You don’t burn the mosquito net in order to kill one mosquito,” he said, adding that there has been legislation, like the anti-party hopping law to prevent MPs from switching parties at their whims and fancy”.
Meanwhile in the same report, Universiti Malaya professor of Malay Studies, Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi, said a fixed date could result in ministers losing focus on their duties while they start politicking to win re-election.
University of Tasmania professor of Asian Studies, James Chin, said statistical data on election dates has shown there is no correlation between fixing terms of governance and political stability.
“The biggest downside of the proposal is that if you elect the wrong people, you get stuck with these people until the next election. No way out until then.”
Fair points. Regardless, we are left in a sorry state where it’s absolutely no way of knowing other than wait and see.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
