Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.
― Abraham Lincoln, 16th US president
Exactly, what is on the minds of the people of Sarawak in leading up towards the 15th general election (GE15)?
That is the million-dollar question.
It is something that myself, as a political observer kept finding answers to, but frustratingly, to little avail.
Of course, a detailed analysis would lead to a conclusion but that varies on who you talk to.
At best, studies done and boots on the ground would say one thing, but often, you wonder, is it really conclusive.
After all, it is still guesswork, albeit a well-researched assumption.
If we use the last Sarawak state election (PRN12) as an indicator, the mood is overwhelmingly in favour of the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) state government.
GPS won by a landslide, winning 76 out of 82 seats, a feat that I think, would be very difficult to replicate.
It is almost as if the fluid politics in the nation whereby a razor-thin majority is the norm, does not apply to Sarawak politics.
Maybe, just maybe, the people in the state are jaded with politics in Malaya where bouts of instability have hampered the nation’s progress.
Probably, the message by GPS in the last Sarawak state election – whereby it promised stability, prosperity and glory resonated with voters throughout the state.
One could assume that the people are oblivious to having a carrot dangled before them in the shape of sweet promises.
That happened in GE14 where Pakatan Harapan (PH) came out with a manifesto which just about swept everyone off their feet.
When in power, these bunch had the gall to say that the manifesto “is not a bible” and must be followed to a tee.
Then we learned that the manifesto was drafted without having a proper plan to fulfil them as Pakatan leaders did not expect to be in the government.
PH prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in his book, Capturing Hope: The Struggle Continues For A New Malaysia revealed that even after becoming ministers, PH leaders continued to behave as if they were still in the Opposition which caused problems.
He wrote that when his newly appointed ministers discovered that the previous administration under Datuk Seri Najib Razak had awarded a contract that was very costly to the government, they wanted to terminate it.
“I had to point out that if we terminated the project without grounds, we would be in breach of contract. If we wanted to legally end a contract, we would have to compensate the other party,” he said.
We can only assume terminating sorely needed infrastructure projects in Sarawak was one of their bright ideas.
Back to the question at hand, I think we could at least surmise that GE15 is Barisan Nasional’s (BN) to lose.
I suppose there will be experts and pundits who would say it could go either way and won’t commit to an answer as to who will be returned as the federal government, but I am convinced in my assessment.
However, that does not answer what is on the minds of the people in Sarawak.
A state leader told me not too long ago that there is this mentality among the people, probably not limited to just Sarawak, that it is somewhat of a trend that Sarawak voters would retain the state government in state elections.
That much is true – GPS won in the last round. However, the second part of that same trend is that voters would swing towards the federal opposition in parliamentary elections, the reasoning behind that is for ‘check and balance’.
The last GE lent some credence to this theory, but many would point out that it was a fluke – a perfect storm as they would describe it.
Whether this is true this round, remains to be seen. The appeal of PH has waned. That much is beyond doubt – the supporters, or at least what’s left of them are die-hard party loyalists and sympathisers.
Fence-sitters and general voters who does not give two hoots about politics wouldn’t share the same sentiment.
As for Sarawak, the fight would remain between GPS and local-based opposition meaning PH is bound to lose seats.
Regardless of the outcome, it would be interesting to see whether there is a swing from the state election results, if any.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
