KUALA TERENGGANU: In almost every state election, the real fight in Terengganu has always been between PAS and Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN).
Other contending parties, if any, don’t stand much of a chance.
With the strong support from their members and supporters at the grassroots, PAS and BN have taken turns leading the state government since Independence.
So much so, Terengganu politics has even been described as pendulum politics that changes according to a certain period of time, making it almost impossible to predict who will emerge as the winner.
Political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub is of the opinion that one cannot be too confident to say that PAS would win the state election this year through its alliance with Bersatu and Gerakan under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) flag, especially after winning all the eight parliamentary seats in the state in the 15th general election (GE15).
“We cannot confidently assume that PAS will also win all the state seats in the state election as there are certain areas that have been BN’s strongholds…and BN ruled the state before PAS wrested it back in 2018.
“So, if we want to understand Terengganu politics, we have to look at the bigger picture, not just the national context, but also at the local context.
“For me, it is true that PAS is strong, but it does not necessarily mean that Terengganu is a PAS stronghold and this is based on the political dynamics in the state.
“The political dynamics in Terengganu is different from other states, and the voters are more realistic with state politics… this is the uniqueness of Terengganu politics that is not found in other states,” Mohammad Tawfik told Bernama.
The view was echoed by ILHAM Centre chief researcher Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim who stressed that the framework of general election differed from that of the state election, hence conclusions cannot be easily drawn that PN will definitely retain power in Terengganu after the state election.
“We cannot conclude that the momentum of public support for a particular party is the same as in the GE15…there’s an equal chance (for PAS and BN) in Terengganu.
“Actually, the support for BN is still strong, but it depends on how BN works to manage their supporters (when issues arise). Supporters are usually able to absorb and accept explanations from the party leadership, but if that process of housekeeping fails, their support will shift,” he said.
Citing the collaboration between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) in forming the unity government, Mohd Yusri said it cannot be denied that it has somewhat eroded the trust of Umno supporters who were largely unified by ethnoreligious sentiment.
“Hence, with the limited time available (before the state election), BN leadership needs to carry out effective housekeeping and engage with the people at the grassroots. By doing so, it is possible for BN to gain even more support,” he said.
In his observation, he said even if BN cannot win the state election, the coalition should ensure that they have a sufficient number of seats to be a strong opposition bloc in the state assembly.
PAS returned to power in Terengganu after winning 22 out of the 32 seats contested in the GE14 in 2018, while BN secured the 10 remaining seats, namely in Jertih, Kuala Besut, Hulu Besut, Permaisuri, Langkap, Batu Rakit, Seberang Takir, Telemong, Bukit Besi and Kijal.
Terengganu is among the six states to hold their state elections this year, along with Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kelantan and Kedah. – BERNAMA
