By Arnold Puyok & Shahrill Sabarudin
In the recent election in Sabah, GRS comprising BN, PN and PBS defeated Warisan by a six-seat margin. The defeat was expected. Two statewide opinion polls conducted by the independent think tank SEEDS (Society Empowerment and Economic Development of Sabah) showed tell-tale signs of Warisan’s loss of support from various segments of society.
For instance, more people perceived PN positively than Warisan in terms of how they administer the country overall. Even though more than half of the adult respondents said that Warisan should continue to lead Sabah, about the same number of youth and senior respondents said in the negative (see here for the full results of the opinion polls: “The Sabah Imperative: PRN 2020 Key Realities on the Ground” & SEEDS Sabah Electoral Project 2020: Findings from the Second Sweep, https://www.facebook.com/seedssabah1).
More people were also satisfied with PN compared to Warisan in terms of their handling of key issues such as economic management, governance, security and Covid-19 management.
Warisan, therefore, entered the election a wounded lion and unprepared. The results of the election reflect significantly on the findings of the SEEDS opinion polls.
Sarawak will hold its election this year before the expiry of its legislature on June 6. The election is important for Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari Tun Openg and GPS, especially as they are seeking the mandate of the people who have grown tired of the endless politicking at the national level and whose lives have been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Many expect that GPS will sail through given the fragmented opposition parties in Sarawak. The challenge for GPS is to maintain its support in the Dayak areas where PSB is seen as gaining ground. Like in previous elections, GPS has the incumbency advantage but the mood of the people can change at the eleventh hour as what happened in Sabah. Therefore, understanding the mood of the electorates and responding proactively to their needs are important.
So, what lessons can Sarawak leaders learn from the Sabah election?
It’s the economy, s****d!
This expression was used by the Clinton campaign team in the 1992 presidential election during which the US was experiencing economic downturn. They coined the phrase to emphasise the importance of focusing on the economy in order to gain the people’s confidence.
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused massive damage to the economy. As Sabah’s economy is highly driven by commodity-related export and tourism sector, it is vulnerable to global economic shocks.
In Sabah alone, it’s reported that 4,000 people lost their jobs with those affected mainly self-employed and youth (Daily Express, April 11 & July 8, 2020). The pandemic has caused jobs to become scarce and many struggling to make ends meet.
The SEEDS opinion polls show that economic factor plays a pivotal role in influencing the voters’ voting decision. For many, the election is about choosing the party that can respond fast to the basic economic needs of the people. This is where Warisan had failed to provide.
Warisan campaigned along the messages of unity and nation-building but these were not the priorities of most people in the rural areas. GRS took advantage of the loopholes in Warisan’s campaign strategies by highlighting what the federal government had done to revive the economy. Warisan leaders responded by saying that the economic impacts as a result of Covid-19 are beyond their control. While it is true that the pandemic has turned the world economy upside down, a responsive government will not give excuses but deal with the problem head-on. Singapore is a good example.
It is, therefore, crucial for Sarawak leaders to understand the sentiment on the ground during this pandemic period. Are there any programmes put in place to assist those affected by Covid-19 and how about a plan to recover the economy? Apart from these short-term and long-term measures, there should be a practical solution to help those who have lost their incomes and to revive small businesses affected by the pandemic.
Sarawak has the resources to address this economic issue. All it needs to do is to ensure that the resources are channelled effectively and judiciously to the needy. There are grumbles that despite the resources at Sarawak’s disposal, some wakil rakyat are slow in expediting the disbursement of the state allocation for the constituencies concerned.
More actions than sloganeering
It is understandable than sloganeering is important for politicians. It is used to persuade the people and to get an idea across. But sloganeering without real actions at a time of crisis is imprudent at least to those vying for public office. The people want leaders who act fast and can provide real solutions to problems.
Rather than focusing on the issues of governance and the economy, Warisan chose to promote slogans such as “Sabahans Unite Not Divide”, “In God We Trust and “Unite We Must”. Billboards were also erected showing Shafie’s famous quote: “We are here to build a nation, not a particular race or religion”. The message was accompanied by Shafie’s self-portrait á la Che Guevara — the Cuban revolutionary leader.
As a campaign message, and in the absence of a tangible manifesto, this was well received by the electorates — even eclipsing the preference towards the manifesto launched by GRS. However, as we all know by now, it did not translate into votes. While such messages resonated well with the people, the bigger priorities were economic survival and infrastructure development.
Lessons for Sarawak leaders: the right strategies are taking action than resorting to sloganeering, providing tangible results than promoting abstract ideas.
Development (still) matters
The idealistic politicians will remind the people to look beyond infrastructure development. They argue that human development is equally important for any transitional societies.
But infrastructure development has direct impacts on the livelihood of the people in rural Sabah and Sarawak. Things such as water and electricity supply, roads and other basic amenities are important for the daily activities of the rural people. A good rural road network, for instance, will allow the people to go to nearby town areas to sell their agricultural produce, send their kids to school, buy daily necessities, etc.
This perennial, longstanding issue of development is much more salient even in the face of much more recent and topical issues such as political frogging which actually triggered the state election, and a possible confrontation between Sabah and the Philippines over the latter’s claim to the state. More than 90 percent of the respondents in the SEEDS opinion polls said that infrastructure development is an important issue that would affect how they vote, compared to 72.3 percent affected by political frogging and 73.6 percent affected by the Philippines territorial claim.
When making our rounds during campaigning in the Sabah election, we chanced upon a banner that reads: “Ada aspal/jambatan, ada undi” (seal our road and build us a bridge, our vote is granted). Such a message to the politicians is not unique in the rural areas. It reminds them that the people are willing to trade their political support for development.
Trust the data
Data is knowledge and knowledge is power. Barack Obama used poll data extensively in his 2012 presidential re-election bid. Data analytics helped Obama and his campaign team to track voting patterns and to respond proactively to issues based on trends in the data sets.
Data derived from opinion polls, extensive fieldwork and focus group discussion can uncover useful information to support politicians in decision-making.
Data analytics is already widely used in developed countries — not only for electoral campaign but for policy formulation.
In Sabah and Sarawak, most politicians base their decision on past experiences, some on instincts, and others on information obtained from third parties.
The two opinion polls by SEEDS provide useful information about issues that matter to the people and their reaction to the performance of PN and Warisan. A total of 2,350 respondents were polled in the first sweep and another 1,138 were polled in the following sweep to provide an error margin of 3 percent for each sweep. A descriptive and multidimensional approach was used to analyse the results which in the end produced a much more nuanced reasoning of the data.
Sarawak leaders can make informed decision about how it should respond to the needs of the people based on the data they gather on the ground. Data can also help Sarawak leaders to allocate funds more prudently in areas that need them to most. Also, do Sarawak leaders know how many people understand the MA63? How many are aware about the efforts of the government in relation to the MA63? And, generally what do the people think about the government and the many initiatives introduced by Abang Johari?
The answers for these questions can be systematically analysed through data analytics and help support Sarawak leaders to respond meaningfully to issues raised by the people.
• Dr Arnold Puyok is Senior Lecturer in Politics and Government Studies at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.
• Shahrill Sabarudin is the consultancy director spearheading the Big Data initiatives of a leading think-tank Bait Al Amanah based in Kuala Lumpur.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the New Sarawak Tribune.
