COMMENTARY
By DAH IKHWAN
The signs in Malaya are quite clear. There have been seven by-elections so far, of which the first four – Seri Setia, Sg Kandis, Balakong and Port Dickson – were all won by Pakatan Harapan (PH) and the last three were all won by Barisan Nasional (BN).
The PH victories in the first four by-elections were not unexpected as they were held almost immediately after the GE14 when the Pakatan Harapan euphoria was still strong. Even then the voter turnouts were low as most voters preferred to stay away, probably due to election fatigue or early change of heart.
The fading away of PH’s lustre became more obvious in the subsequent by-elections – Cameron Highlands, Semenyih and Rantau – which were all won by BN.
Many factors were cited for the gains made by BN. Among them was widespread anger over PH’s failure to fulfil its general election promises, most notably the cancellation of tertiary education loans, employment creation, keeping the cost of living down, abolishment of road tolls, and many more.
To be fair to PH, it is very difficult, if not impossible, to keep the promises within 100 days as promised.
It is yet to be seen if the PH federal government can fulfill these promises in the next four years up till the GE15. My guess is they are impossible to achieve if the federal government were to accede to Sarawak’s demand for its rights prescribed in the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).
The promises need money to be fulfilled and the only source is from oil and gas, most of which belong to Sarawak. So, the question is which side will win in the tussle over petroleum money – Kuching or Putrajaya? If Sarawak wins, Sarawakians will benefit. If Putrajaya wins Sarawak will continue to be its cash cow.
Still, the above issues are not insurmountable. It is whether the federal government can balance Sarawak’s demand against fulfilling its GE14 promises, most of which will benefit Malayan states.
On the part of Sarawak, if its people are united behind the state government in the fight for the state’s rights, they could tip the scale to their benefit. There should be no reason to lose in this struggle.
The more serious threat to PH’s current political dominance actually comes from the Malays, that is, if they unite under PAS and/or Umno. These parties obtained 75 per cent of the Malay votes in the GE14, meaning that after the ousting of the BN, the Malays suddenly found themselves having little political power.
Their political dominance was shattered, thus providing the catalyst for a call of unity that we see now. This may build up into a strong backlash against DAP’s current political dominance and control over 95 per cent of the Chinese votes in the country.
The 75 per cent combined Malay support that BN and PAS garnered in the last four by-elections is actually the same as what BN and PAS had in total in the GE14. What makes them formidable now is their ability to face elections together against PH.
However, the BN-PAS combination carries the risk of pushing Malaysia further along the road of racial and religious extremism. A federal government formed on this dual pillar, if elected without substantial participation of other races, will not be good for the country.
Blame it on Najib or Dr Mahathir for the recent general election defeat of the BN, but what is happening now is actually a natural consequence of the great racial divide originally provoked by DAP.
The Malayan Malays now have no choice but to reunite and to be with PAS is the only way for BN. Both MCA and MIC have accepted this inevitability.
It should be noted that the Malays no longer look up to Dr Mahathir as their leader as he is now on the other side of the political divide having been propped up there as Prime Minister by DAP.
As for the Indians, and judging from the Rantau and Cameron Highlands by-elections, there were indications of substantial shifts in their votes in favour of BN. If past trends are anything to go by, even the Chinese sentiment might to some extent move in a similar direction.
Whether this will remain until the next general election is too early to tell. It will likely depend on the ability of BN-PAS to retain Malay support as a united front which in turn could serve as a catalyst for renewed support from other races.
For us in Sarawak, we are facing a hostile PH federal government and unsupportive Malayans. Thus, it makes more sense to rally behind the state government and fight for the full powers provided by MA63.
There has been no by-election in Sarawak so far making it not so easy to read the political pulse in the state. But what we do know is that the post-election euphoria for PH is gone. Local issues now take centre stage, particularly the fight for autonomy under MA63 including the state’s rights over petroleum and gas. It is hard to imagine a Sarawakian not subscribing to these state ideals.
Local partners of PH are now facing a test of their lifetime, that is, to be loyal to Sarawak ideals or the ideals of their Malaya-based parties whose bottom line is “Malaya first”. They are now facing what the local BN leaders faced in the last 55 years.
For those past leaders, the current generation of Sarawakians may understand their predicaments as at that time they were facing a mighty federal government that could even overwhelm the Parliament and had weapons like the Internal Security Act to suppress or subdue dissenting voices.
The shoe is now on the other foot and Pakatan Harapan is the federal government. The question is, what have the local PH leaders done or achieved for the state? Do they have more funds or more development for the state?
We know that even the three major bridge projects approved by the previous BN federal government have been cancelled. Yet these leaders have nothing to fear, except of course, the fear of losing their positions and perks in the government.
Fighting for Sarawak’s rights may be something that the political elites appreciate. But are the ordinary people, especially those in the rural areas, aware of what it means?
Do they know the benefits that are due to them? Is there strong emotional attachment to it? Probably the GPS campaign machinery is doing something about it while PH is strategising to counter it.
Politics in Malaysia can be very dynamic at times as new issues can crop up anytime. It will be interesting to watch how things will play up in the run-up to the state election slated for 2021. The stakes are high, and so will the intensity of the campaign and its accompanying propaganda.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the New Sarawak Tribune.
